Australian foreign student numbers ¡®likely to fall short of cap¡¯

Last year¡¯s legislative roadblock has not prevented Australia from capping international student numbers, with overseas enrolments likely to ¡°undershoot¡± the government¡¯s proposed quota by as much as 35,000, according to analysis.

International education veteran Bobby Abraham said foreign student admissions in the 2024-25 financial year are unlikely to have reached the 270,000 limit that the federal government set for 2025 amid concerns that foreign students were causing housing shortages.

¡°Even if visa grants pick up sharply, Australia will still fall substantially short of the cap ¨C possibly finishing the year under by 35,000,¡± Abraham estimated on . ¡°This shortfall is a core driver of the financial distress, job losses and reputational challenges now impacting the sector.¡±

Abraham is head of admissions, global engagement and partnerships at Excelsia College, a private higher education institution that was granted university college status last year, and a board member of representative group Independent Higher Education Australia. His analysis is based on the latest Department of º£½ÇÖ±²¥ Affairs data, covering student visa applications and grants until the end of May.

He found that universities and other higher education colleges would meet their nominal quota of 175,000 overseas student admissions, but the vocational education and training (VET) sector would attract only a little over half of its cap of 95,000 commencements.

And while stand-alone English language commencements were exempted from the government¡¯s proposed limits, visa grants for language students had slumped to slightly over half of their level a year earlier. Enrolments from Latin America had seen a ¡°significant collapse¡± ¨C particularly from Colombia, whose share of commencing language students had fallen from about one-quarter to one-twelfth.

The government¡¯s bill to cap overseas student numbers stalled in the Senate after the opposition reversed its support for the measure. But Abraham said the target had been met through visa processing delays enforced under ministerial direction 107 and its replacement mechanism, ministerial direction 111.

¡°The sector should brace for more reputed English language centres and VET education providers to stop operating unless there is a dramatic shift in policy,¡± Abraham warned.

Lonsdale Institute, a VET and English language college registered to accommodate over 3,700 international students, shut its doors in mid-July. The Language College, Perth International College of English and International House?also all entered administration since late last year.

Fees for student visas rose by one-quarter to A$2,000 (?971) at the beginning of July. Industry insiders say many international students are not prepared to pay such exorbitant visa charges to undertake short exchange, vocational or language programmes. Two university groups recently called for visa fees to be cut for people taking courses of a year or less.

Immigration expert Abul Rizvi said English language colleges¡¯ problems had begun not with the fee hikes but with an earlier spike in visa refusals, particularly among students from countries with large growth rates. He said some 40 per cent of language students applying for visas from Colombia had been rejected in 2024-25, up from 4 per cent two years earlier.

Writing in the journal, Rizvi said the English language training sector¡¯s ¡°long history of booms and busts¡± had begun when a horde of students had claimed asylum in the 1980s. ¡°The Department of Immigration has been wary¡­ever since.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com